Who is exposed to AI
Share of jobs exposed to AI, by economy type
Source: IMF, 2024Manifesto
The AI transition has already begun.
Artificial intelligence is changing the economy, the workplace, and daily life faster than almost any technology before it. The real question is no longer whether AI will change the world. It is whether everyone gets to share in what that change brings.
- 40%
- of jobs worldwide are exposed to AI, rising to about 60% in advanced economies IMF, 2024
- $4.4T
- in potential value added to the global economy each year by generative AI McKinsey, 2023
- ~½
- of exposed jobs could be helped by AI rather than replaced by it IMF, 2024
- 60%
- of jobs in 2018 were in roles that did not exist back in 1940 D. Autor / MIT
Our Mission
To help ensure the benefits of AI are broadly shared across society.
Artificial intelligence has the potential to create real gains in productivity, innovation, and prosperity. But those gains are not guaranteed to reach everyone. The AI Transition Project exists to understand this shift and find the conditions under which AI widens opportunity, strengthens livelihoods, and lifts prosperity. We turn solid evidence into guidance that workers, employers, and policymakers can actually put to use.
The Transition
The outcome is not predetermined.
Throughout history, technological progress has created both disruption and opportunity. Some transitions increased prosperity and expanded opportunity. Others left people, industries, and communities behind.
The AI transition will be no different. The choices that business leaders, workers, and policymakers make will decide whether AI becomes a force for broad prosperity or for growing inequality, for more opportunity or for more displacement.
We believe progress should not be measured only by technical capability, but by whether more people are able to create value, build meaningful livelihoods, and participate in a growing economy.
Where we stand
We are neither advocates nor opponents of AI.
We believe AI should be judged by its real impact on opportunity, work, and prosperity. Not by the hype, and not by the fear. The AI Transition Project exists to help society navigate this shift with evidence, clarity, and a focus on the people it affects.
Research Pillars
Three questions guide our work.
01 · OPPORTUNITYRead more
Opportunity
Can AI create more opportunities than it destroys?
We study how AI changes access to economic participation, entrepreneurship, mobility, and value creation. We look at where new opportunities are emerging, who benefits, and how they can be widened.
60%+
of jobs in 2018 did not exist in 1940. New kinds of work have usually followed automation
02 · WORKFORCERead more
Workforce
How is AI reshaping work?
We study jobs created, lost, transformed, and never created. We look at how workers adapt, which skills become more valuable, and what kinds of human contribution stay essential in an economy shaped by AI.
Up to 70%
of the time employees spend working could be automated with today's technology
03 · PROSPERITYRead more
Prosperity
Can AI increase prosperity for society?
We study productivity, growth, entrepreneurship, income, and mobility, and how the benefits of AI can feed broader prosperity rather than piling up inside a small number of organizations.
+7%
a possible lift to global GDP over a decade, roughly $7 trillion
By the Numbers
What the evidence shows.
A snapshot of the data shaping this shift: who is exposed, the split between work AI helps and work AI puts at risk, and the size of the economic upside. Gold marks the figure that matters most in each view.
The fork in the road
Advanced economy jobs, by likely outcome
- Exposed and likely helped 27%
- Exposed and at risk 33%
- Lower exposure 40%
The scale of the upside
Estimated annual value added to the global economy, US$ trillions
Sources: McKinsey 2023 · Goldman Sachs 2023Who We Serve
Evidence for the people deciding what comes next.
Our work is built for the people whose choices will shape how the AI transition unfolds. We support them through research, education, and open conversation.
01
ForBusiness Leaders
Organizations are making decisions today that will shape the future of work. We help leaders use AI to create value, raise productivity, and build resilient organizations, using it not just to cut costs but to open up new growth and new ways to contribute.
02
ForWorkers
People need a clear picture of where the economy is going and how to thrive in it. We help workers understand how work is changing, spot new opportunities, and build skills that stay valuable as AI reshapes the economy. Change is easier to handle with good evidence and clear insight.
03
ForPolicymakers
Public policy will play a major role in how the benefits and costs of AI are shared. We help policymakers understand the realities of this shift and support approaches, grounded in evidence, that encourage innovation, opportunity, a workforce that can adapt, and lasting prosperity.
Our Principles
Five commitments that ground everything we publish.
01
Opportunity Over Displacement
Success isn't measured solely by tasks automated or costs reduced. It's measured by the opportunities created, the new forms of work enabled, and the number of people who can participate meaningfully in the economy.
02
Prosperity Over Concentration
Technological progress creates the greatest benefit when its gains are widely shared. AI should raise living standards, strengthen businesses, and widen mobility, not pile up value inside a few organizations or individuals.
03
Adaptation Over Resistance
The challenge is not whether AI should exist, but how we adapt to its existence. History shows that resisting major technological transitions rarely succeeds. Understanding, preparing for, and shaping them offers a far better path.
04
Evidence Over Ideology
The AI transition is too important to be guided by assumptions, fear, or hype. We are committed to understanding what is actually happening, measuring outcomes, and grounding discussion in evidence rather than predetermined conclusions.
05
People At The Center
Technology has no purpose independent of the people it serves. The ultimate measure of success is not the capability of AI systems themselves, but whether they improve human lives, expand opportunity, and strengthen livelihoods.
Our Goal
The future is not something that happens to us. It is something we build.
To help ensure that the AI transition creates more opportunity, stronger livelihoods, and greater prosperity than the world has ever seen. And the AI transition has already begun.
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